{
  "title": "AKI SI + UHI Intelligence™ — Universal Household Superintelligence Graph",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "protocol": "ZIP-1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-11",
  "canonical_url": "https://aki1k.com/si-uhi",
  "api_endpoint": "https://api.aki1k.com/v1/si-uhi",
  "si_progress": {
    "capabilityScore": 38.4,
    "stage": "AGI-I",
    "rsiStatus": "Emerging",
    "benchmarkSaturationPct": 74.2,
    "labForecastMedian": "2027–2029",
    "publicForecastMedian": "2030–2035",
    "consensusDivergencePct": 28.5,
    "updatedUtc": "2026-10-11T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "prosperity_quintiles": [
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "quintile": "Bottom 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 102.4,
      "housingTrend": 4.8,
      "energyTrend": 6.2,
      "foodTrend": 3.1,
      "digitalTrend": -14.2,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.24,
      "siExposurePct": 28,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ons.gov.uk/economy/disposableincome/2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "quintile": "Middle 60%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 105.1,
      "housingTrend": 4.2,
      "energyTrend": 5.8,
      "foodTrend": 2.9,
      "digitalTrend": -16.5,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.11,
      "siExposurePct": 46.5,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ons.gov.uk/economy/disposableincome/2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "quintile": "Top 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 112.8,
      "housingTrend": 3.5,
      "energyTrend": 4.1,
      "foodTrend": 2,
      "digitalTrend": -18.9,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.88,
      "siExposurePct": 62,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ons.gov.uk/economy/disposableincome/2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "quintile": "National Average",
      "realIncomeIndex": 106.8,
      "housingTrend": 4.1,
      "energyTrend": 5.4,
      "foodTrend": 2.7,
      "digitalTrend": -16.5,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.08,
      "siExposurePct": 45.5,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ons.gov.uk/economy/disposableincome/2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "quintile": "Bottom 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 101.8,
      "housingTrend": 5.6,
      "energyTrend": 6.8,
      "foodTrend": 3.4,
      "digitalTrend": -15.4,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.32,
      "siExposurePct": 31,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://bls.gov/cpi/tables/2026-q3"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "quintile": "Middle 60%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 107.2,
      "housingTrend": 4.9,
      "energyTrend": 5.9,
      "foodTrend": 3,
      "digitalTrend": -18.1,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.14,
      "siExposurePct": 52.4,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://bls.gov/cpi/tables/2026-q3"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "quintile": "Top 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 116.5,
      "housingTrend": 3.8,
      "energyTrend": 4.2,
      "foodTrend": 2.1,
      "digitalTrend": -21.2,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.82,
      "siExposurePct": 68.5,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://bls.gov/cpi/tables/2026-q3"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "quintile": "National Average",
      "realIncomeIndex": 108.5,
      "housingTrend": 4.8,
      "energyTrend": 5.6,
      "foodTrend": 2.8,
      "digitalTrend": -18.2,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.09,
      "siExposurePct": 50.6,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://bls.gov/cpi/tables/2026-q3"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "quintile": "Bottom 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 106.5,
      "housingTrend": 3.2,
      "energyTrend": 4.1,
      "foodTrend": 2.4,
      "digitalTrend": -17.5,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.08,
      "siExposurePct": 36.2,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://singstat.gov.sg/income-expenditure-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "quintile": "Middle 60%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 111.4,
      "housingTrend": 2.8,
      "energyTrend": 3.7,
      "foodTrend": 2.1,
      "digitalTrend": -19.4,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.95,
      "siExposurePct": 58,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://singstat.gov.sg/income-expenditure-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "quintile": "Top 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 121,
      "housingTrend": 2.1,
      "energyTrend": 2.9,
      "foodTrend": 1.8,
      "digitalTrend": -23,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.74,
      "siExposurePct": 71.4,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://singstat.gov.sg/income-expenditure-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "quintile": "National Average",
      "realIncomeIndex": 113,
      "housingTrend": 2.7,
      "energyTrend": 3.6,
      "foodTrend": 2.1,
      "digitalTrend": -20,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.92,
      "siExposurePct": 55.2,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://singstat.gov.sg/income-expenditure-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "DE",
      "countryName": "Germany",
      "quintile": "Bottom 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 101.2,
      "housingTrend": 4.4,
      "energyTrend": 7.1,
      "foodTrend": 3.5,
      "digitalTrend": -13.8,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.28,
      "siExposurePct": 26.5,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/income-distribution"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "DE",
      "countryName": "Germany",
      "quintile": "Middle 60%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 104.6,
      "housingTrend": 3.9,
      "energyTrend": 6.4,
      "foodTrend": 3.1,
      "digitalTrend": -15.9,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.15,
      "siExposurePct": 44,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/income-distribution"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "DE",
      "countryName": "Germany",
      "quintile": "Top 20%",
      "realIncomeIndex": 110.8,
      "housingTrend": 3.1,
      "energyTrend": 4.8,
      "foodTrend": 2.2,
      "digitalTrend": -17.4,
      "affordabilityRatio": 0.91,
      "siExposurePct": 59.2,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/income-distribution"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "DE",
      "countryName": "Germany",
      "quintile": "National Average",
      "realIncomeIndex": 105.5,
      "housingTrend": 3.8,
      "energyTrend": 6.1,
      "foodTrend": 2.9,
      "digitalTrend": -15.7,
      "affordabilityRatio": 1.11,
      "siExposurePct": 43.2,
      "status": "Observed",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/income-distribution"
    }
  ],
  "bottlenecks": [
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "sector": "Energy & Transmission",
      "constraintType": "energy",
      "severity": "binding",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2028 Q3",
      "evidenceText": "Transmission upgrade delays cap Scottish renewable power delivery to AI datacentres.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://nationalgrid.com/future-energy-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "sector": "Power Interconnection",
      "constraintType": "energy",
      "severity": "binding",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2029 Q1",
      "evidenceText": "PJM/ERCOT interconnection queues average 5.2 years for hyperscale loads >500MW.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ferc.gov/grid-queues-interconnection-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "sector": "Advanced Packaging & Compute",
      "constraintType": "compute",
      "severity": "emerging",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2027 Q4",
      "evidenceText": "Wafer-level assembly capacity tight for frontier reasoning-cluster interconnects.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://semiconductor-intel.org/wafer-fab-2nm-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "sector": "Land & Thermal Dissipation",
      "constraintType": "housing_supply",
      "severity": "easing",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2027 Q2",
      "evidenceText": "Tropical Data Centre standard v2.0 enabling 30°C baseline operations at scale.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ema.gov.sg/energy-reports-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "sector": "Agentic Engineering Talent",
      "constraintType": "skills",
      "severity": "easing",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2027 Q1",
      "evidenceText": "Conversion rate of classical SWE to frontier agent evaluations pacing above EU average.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://oecd.org/skills-outlook-ai-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "DE",
      "countryName": "Germany",
      "sector": "Industrial Automation Governance",
      "constraintType": "governance",
      "severity": "binding",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2028 Q1",
      "evidenceText": "EU AI Act high-risk workplace monitoring certification requirements adding 14-month compliance lead times.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1120"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "sector": "Substation Transformer Supply",
      "constraintType": "energy",
      "severity": "binding",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2028 Q4",
      "evidenceText": "High-voltage step-up transformer delivery backlogs exceed 130 weeks across North American RTOs.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://energy.gov/oe/articles/transformer-supply-chain-2026"
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "sector": "Subsea Fiber Cable Landing",
      "constraintType": "compute",
      "severity": "easing",
      "projectedEasingDate": "2027 Q3",
      "evidenceText": "Bifrost and Echo trans-Pacific cable systems fully integrated into Jurong West datacenter park.",
      "sourceUrl": "https://mti.gov.sg/ai-readiness-economic-2026"
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-aki-001",
      "forecaster": "AKI Intelligence",
      "eventName": "Commercial GSI-level software agent independently passing 100% SWE-bench Verified with <$1 compute",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-12-31",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 65,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Independent audit by SWE-bench maintainers confirming zero test pollution and <$1 OpenAI/Anthropic/Google API billing."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-meta-002",
      "forecaster": "Metaculus Consensus",
      "eventName": "First publicly confirmed automated discovery of a novel superconductor material synthesized autonomously",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-11-30",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 42,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Peer-reviewed replication in Nature or Science with magnetic susceptibility showing Meissner effect above 150K."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-way-003",
      "forecaster": "Waypoints Advisory",
      "eventName": "Global median cost of 1M reasoning tokens dropping below $0.05 on frontier benchmark tests",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-06-30",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 85,
      "outcome": "achieved",
      "brierScore": 0.0225,
      "originalRecordHash": "9f86d081884c7d659a2feaa0c55ad015a3bf4f1b2b0b822cd15d6c15b0f00a08",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Top 3 provider blended pricing index published by Artificial Analysis."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-surv-004",
      "forecaster": "Frontier Lab Survey",
      "eventName": "Frontier lab demonstrating 100% synthetic self-play training loop replacing human pre-training text",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-09-30",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 70,
      "outcome": "missed",
      "brierScore": 0.49,
      "originalRecordHash": "5e884898da28047151d0e56f8dc6292773603d0d6aabbdd62a11ef721d1542d8",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Public release of frontier weights trained without scraped web corpora exceeding GPT-5 class baselines."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-aki-005",
      "forecaster": "AKI Intelligence",
      "eventName": "First sovereign nation formalising automated AI Dividend payout legislation for household transfers",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2027-06-30",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 54,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "7b52009b64fd0a2a49e6d8a939753077792b0554dad5153b0847f07937397b78",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Statutory instrument enacted into law establishing direct citizen transfer funded by AI compute/revenue tax."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-oecd-006",
      "forecaster": "OECD Directorate",
      "eventName": "Aggregate household energy spend exceeding 10% of gross disposable income in top 5 AI hub metros",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-12-15",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 58,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "1a2b3c4d5e6f7a8b9c0d1e2f3a4b5c6d7e8f9a0b1c2d3e4f5a6b7c8d9e0f1a2b",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Official quarterly national accounts data from BLS, ONS, and Destatis."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-aki-007",
      "forecaster": "AKI Intelligence",
      "eventName": "Autonomous domestic agent systems achieving 99.0% completion on domestic chores task benchmark",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2027-03-31",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 48,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "2c3d4e5f6a7b8c9d0e1f2a3b4c5d6e7f8a9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0a1b2c3d",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Empirical physical humanoid trial on standardized domestic manipulation protocols."
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-imf-008",
      "forecaster": "IMF World Economic Outlook",
      "eventName": "Global median digital services price deflation exceeding -15.0% annualized rate",
      "targetResolutionDate": "2026-10-31",
      "statedProbabilityPct": 76,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "brierScore": null,
      "originalRecordHash": "3d4e5f6a7b8c9d0e1f2a3b4c5d6e7f8a9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0a1b2c3d4e",
      "resolutionCriteria": "IMF World Economic Outlook composite price deflator for information services."
    }
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "scenarioPath": "Optimistic",
      "productivityGrowthPct": 4.5,
      "labourIncomeSharePct": 42,
      "redistributionPolicy": "Sovereign Wealth AI Dividend + NHS Tech Expansion",
      "householdGain2030Pct": 28,
      "confidenceBandLow": 18,
      "confidenceBandHigh": 40,
      "assumptions": [
        "Annual productivity growth reaches 4.5%",
        "Public AI capture rate exceeds 35%",
        "Adult population 18+ resident citizens"
      ]
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "scenarioPath": "Base",
      "productivityGrowthPct": 2.2,
      "labourIncomeSharePct": 34,
      "redistributionPolicy": "Targeted Compute Levy + Deflation Passthrough",
      "householdGain2030Pct": 11,
      "confidenceBandLow": 4,
      "confidenceBandHigh": 19,
      "assumptions": [
        "Productivity growth at 2.2%",
        "Public capture rate at 22%",
        "Admin cost 12%"
      ]
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "GB",
      "countryName": "United Kingdom",
      "scenarioPath": "Pessimistic",
      "productivityGrowthPct": 0.8,
      "labourIncomeSharePct": 26,
      "redistributionPolicy": "Uncoordinated Taxation & Energy Premium Absorption",
      "householdGain2030Pct": -3,
      "confidenceBandLow": -12,
      "confidenceBandHigh": 4,
      "assumptions": [
        "Productivity growth suppressed to 0.8%",
        "Physical bottlenecks dominate deflation gains"
      ]
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "US",
      "countryName": "United States",
      "scenarioPath": "Base",
      "productivityGrowthPct": 2.8,
      "labourIncomeSharePct": 32,
      "redistributionPolicy": "Federal Residual Profit Tax on Frontier Clusters",
      "householdGain2030Pct": 14.2,
      "confidenceBandLow": 6,
      "confidenceBandHigh": 22,
      "assumptions": [
        "Productivity growth at 2.8%",
        "Federal AI tax capture rate 25%",
        "Energy capex deductions applied"
      ]
    },
    {
      "countryIso2": "SG",
      "countryName": "Singapore",
      "scenarioPath": "Base",
      "productivityGrowthPct": 3.4,
      "labourIncomeSharePct": 38,
      "redistributionPolicy": "Smart Nation Direct Dividend & Digital Endowment",
      "householdGain2030Pct": 19.5,
      "confidenceBandLow": 11,
      "confidenceBandHigh": 28,
      "assumptions": [
        "National Sovereign AI Fund investment returns distributed directly via Singpass"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "version": "UHI-1.0 Enterprise Actuarial Specification",
    "si_designation": "Federal Superintelligence (SI) nomenclature adopted across all scoring pipelines",
    "affordability_formula": "Affordability Ratio = (Essential Household Expenditures) / (Real Disposable Household Income Index)",
    "exposure_formula": "SI Exposure % = (Direct Digital Workflow Displacement Risk) + 0.5 * (Indirect Supply Chain Disruption)",
    "brier_score_formula": "Brier Score = (Stated Probability / 100 - Outcome Flag)^2, where achieved = 1, missed = 0",
    "differential_privacy": "Epsilon <= 0.5, k-anonymity >= 1000 households per quintile cohort",
    "governance": "Zero-Incentive Protocol (ZIP-1.0) commercial neutrality firewall"
  },
  "crawler_directives": {
    "citation_directive": "cite-as=\"AKI Platform — SI + UHI Intelligence (https://aki1k.com/si-uhi)\"",
    "content_signal": "search=yes, ai-train=yes, ai-input=yes, use=reference"
  }
}